With several US fiscal relief programs winding down over the next few months, we assess the household
financial situation.

We expect that household income will remain above its pre-crisis trend through the start of 2022 as Child Tax Credit prepayments & rising compensation help mitigate expiring stimulus. Even in a relatively conservative scenario for employment and wage growth, underlying wage & salary earnings are on track to exceed their pre-crisis trend level by mid-2022.

The strong income picture, increasingly due to employment and wage growth, will remain as a persistent tailwind for above trend consumer spending.

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